The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

2.1 Core concepts

• Demography is the systematic study of population; the word combines demos (people) and graphein (describe). It studies the trends and processes associated with population — changes in size, patterns of births, deaths and migration, and the structure and composition of the population such as the relative proportions of women, men and different age groups (NCERT §Intro, p. 6). All demographic studies rest on processes of counting or enumeration like the census or the survey, which involve the systematic collection of data on people residing within a specified territory.
• Demography is of special importance to sociology — in fact, the emergence of sociology as an academic discipline in the late eighteenth century owed a lot to demography. Two parallel processes — the formation of nation-states as the principal political unit, and the rise of modern statistics — converged in Europe in this period and created a demand for social statistics on aspects of population and economy (NCERT §Intro, pp. 6–7).
• Formal demography is largely quantitative; it focuses on the measurement and analysis of components of population change and has a developed mathematical methodology suitable for forecasting growth and changes in composition. Social demography or population studies enquires into the wider social, economic and political causes and consequences of population change; like sociologists, social demographers seek to trace the social reasons behind population trends (NCERT §Intro, pp. 7–8).
• The American census of 1790 was probably the first modern census. In India, the British conducted censuses between 1867–72 and decennial censuses regularly since 1881; independent India has held seven decennial censuses since 1951, the most recent being 2011 — making the Indian census the world's largest such exercise since China does not conduct regular censuses (NCERT §Intro, p. 6).
• Durkheim's study of suicide rates is cited as proof that aggregate statistics describe a social phenomenon to be explained at the social level, not by individual circumstances alone — death rates per thousand, although built up from individual deaths, are themselves a social phenomenon (NCERT §Intro, p. 7).
• Malthus (1766–1834), in Essay on Population (1798), argued population grows in geometric progression (2, 4, 8, 16, 32…) while food/agricultural production grows only in arithmetic progression (2, 4, 6, 8, 10…); humanity is therefore condemned to live in poverty because the growth of agricultural production will always be overtaken by population growth (NCERT §2.1, p. 8).
• Malthus distinguished preventive checks (postponing marriage, abstinence, celibacy — voluntary restraints) from positive checks (famines, diseases) which he considered nature's inevitable correction to the imbalance between food supply and growing population (NCERT §2.1, p. 8).
• Liberal and Marxist critics rejected Malthus, arguing poverty and starvation are caused by unequal distribution of resources rather than population growth itself — an unjust social system allowed a wealthy minority to live in luxury while the majority lived in poverty. The European experience also disproved Malthus: both food production and standards of living rose despite rapid population growth (NCERT §2.1, p. 9).
• The Theory of Demographic Transition has three stages: Stage 1 — low growth in an underdeveloped, technologically backward society where both birth and death rates are very high; Stage 2 — a transitional 'population explosion' as death rates fall fast through disease control, public health and better nutrition but birth rates lag because they are sociocultural and slow to change; Stage 3 — low growth again in a developed society where both rates have been reduced considerably (NCERT §2.1, pp. 9–10). India is still in the transitional stage — mortality has fallen but birth rate has not declined to the same extent.
• Common indicators: birth rate = live births per 1000 population per year; death rate = deaths per 1000 population per year; growth rate / rate of natural increase = birth rate − death rate; replacement level = growth rate near zero so new generations just replace older ones (NCERT §2.1, pp. 10–11). Negative growth (fertility below replacement) is now true of countries like Japan, Russia, Italy and Eastern Europe.
• Fertility rate = live births per 1000 women aged 15–49; Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = infant deaths under one year per 1000 live births; Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) = women dying in childbirth per 1,00,000 live births. High IMR/MMR are unambiguous indicators of backwardness and poverty (NCERT §2.1, p. 11).
• Sex ratio = number of females per 1000 males. Nature produces 943–952 female babies per 1000 male babies, but girls' resistance to disease in infancy and women outliving men in most societies usually yield a sex ratio around 1050 females per 1000 males globally. India, China and South Korea show declining sex ratios linked to son preference (NCERT §2.1, p. 11).
• Dependency ratio = (population below 15 + above 64) ÷ population aged 15–64, expressed as percentage. A rising ratio is worrying for ageing societies; a falling ratio creates a 'demographic dividend' — though this benefit is temporary because today's workers eventually turn into tomorrow's elderly dependents (NCERT §2.1, p. 12).
• India's population was 121 crores (1.21 billion) per Census 2011, second after China. The 1911–1921 decade had negative growth (−0.03%) because the 1918–19 influenza epidemic killed about 12.5 million / 5% of population; Box 2.2 puts India's death toll as high as ~17 million (NCERT §2.2, pp. 12, 14).
• 1921 is the 'demographic divide': before 1921 both birth and death rates were high; after 1921 death rates fell sharply (control of famines and epidemics, vaccination, sanitation) but birth rates fell only slightly because birth rate is a sociocultural phenomenon slow to change (NCERT §2.2, pp. 12, 15).
• States with TFR around 1.7 (2016) — Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal; Kerala also below replacement. High-TFR states (2016): Bihar 3.3, MP 2.8, Rajasthan 2.7, UP 3.1. Per SRS 2020, Bihar (25.5) and UP (25.1) recorded the highest crude birth rates; rural CBR 21.1, urban 16.1, national 19.5 (NCERT §2.2, p. 15).
• Per Economic Survey 2018–19, UP and Bihar together will contribute ~50% of additions to India's population up to 2041; UP alone ~22% (NCERT §2.2, p. 15).
• Age structure (Table 2, 1961–2026): under-15 share fell from 41% (1961) / 42% (1971) to 29% (2011) and is projected at 23% by 2026; 15–59 share rose from 53% to 63% and is projected at 64%; 60+ rose from 6% to 8% and is projected at 12% (NCERT §2.3, p. 18). India's age pyramid is shifting from a broad-based triangle to a barrel shape.
• 'Demographic dividend' = working-age population (15–64) growing relative to dependents; this advantage is not automatic — it must be consciously exploited through education, skilling and employment-generation policy. Box 2.3 warns that during 1994–2004 employment growth in the 15–30 age group collapsed (NCERT §2.3, Box 2.3, pp. 22–23).
• Sex ratio decline (Table 3): 972 (1901) → 941 (1961) → all-time low 927 (1991) → 933 (2001) → recovery to 943 (2011). Child sex ratio (0–6) fell from 976 (1961) → 945 (1991) → 927 (2001) → 919 (2011) — dropping below the overall sex ratio for the first time in 2001 (NCERT §2.4, pp. 24–25).
• Lowest child sex ratios are in India's most prosperous regions — Haryana 793 (worst, only state below 800), then Punjab, J&K, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh. Highest child sex ratio: Arunachal Pradesh 972. This pattern shows the problem is not poverty but son preference, sex-selective abortion (misuse of sonogram) and the small-family norm among prosperous households (NCERT §2.4, pp. 25, 27).
• The Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act is in force since 1996 and was further strengthened in 2003; the Government has also launched 'Beti-Bachao, Beti-Padhao' to address the bias (NCERT §2.4, p. 27).
• Literacy (Table 4): 18.3% (1951) → 73.0% (2011). 2011 male literacy 80.9%, female 64.6%; male–female gap 16.3%. Between 2001–2011 female literacy rose 10.4% vs male 7.6% — but female literacy among SCs/STs is even lower, reproducing inequality across generations (NCERT §2.5, p. 28).
• Rural–urban (Table 5): rural 89.2% (1901), urban 10.8% (1901); by 2011 rural 68.8%, urban 31.2%. India had 5,161 towns/cities in 2011 with 286 million urban people; over two-thirds of urban population lives in 27 million-plus cities. Rural-to-urban migration is driven by decline of common property resources, agrarian distress and the anonymity that cities offer marginalised groups (NCERT §2.6, pp. 29–31).
• India was perhaps the first country to announce an official population policy (1952), which took shape as the National Family Planning Programme. Coercive mass sterilisation during the Emergency (1975–76) caused widespread opposition; the programme was renamed National Family Welfare Programme after the Emergency. National Population Policy 2000 and National Health Policy 2017 set the current goals — NHP 2017 targets TFR 2.1, life expectancy 70, MMR 100, U-5 mortality 23, public health spending 2.5% of GDP by 2025 (NCERT §2.7, pp. 31–33, Boxes 2.4–2.5).

2.2 Definitions to memorise

2.3 Diagrams / processes to remember

• Table 1 (p. 13) Population of India 1901–2011 — note 1921 = 251 million (decline from 252 m in 1911, the only inter-censal decline), 1951 = 361 m, 2011 = 1210 m; peak decadal growth 24.8% in 1971 and 24.7% in 1981; growth has been moderating since then (17.7% in 2011).
• Chart 1 (p. 13) Birth and death rates in India 1901–2017 — the two curves run parallel until 1921, then diverge sharply as the death curve plunges while the birth curve falls only gradually — a textbook illustration of the second stage of demographic transition.
• Box 2.2 (p. 14) The Global Influenza Pandemic 1918–19 ('Spanish Flu') — killed 25 million worldwide in 25 weeks; 17 million in India alone (~5% of population); 22% of British Indian Army troops who caught the virus died.
• Chart 2 (p. 17) Regional shares of projected population growth to 2041 — UP & Bihar 28%, southern five (AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Karnataka) 16%, MP/Rajasthan/Chhattisgarh 15%, Maharashtra & Gujarat 13%, West Bengal/Odisha/Jharkhand 13%, Punjab/Haryana/Delhi 5%, remaining 10%.
• Table 2 (p. 18) Age composition 1961–2026 — under-15 falling (41→23%), 15–59 rising (53→64%), 60+ rising (6→12%); the 'bulge' in 15–59 = demographic dividend.
• Chart 3 (p. 19) Age-group pyramids for 1961, 1981, 2001 and 2026 — illustrates fall in birth rate (narrowing base), thickening of the working-age middle, and ageing (broadening top) over six decades.
• Chart 4 (p. 22) 2026 pyramids for Kerala vs Uttar Pradesh — Kerala shows a developed-country shape (narrow base, thick middle, broad top); UP shows a young population (broad base, narrow top).
• Box 2.3 (p. 23) The 'demographic dividend' — collapse of employment growth in 15–30 age group from 2.4% (1987–94) to 0.7% rural / 0.3% urban men (1994–2004) warns that the dividend can be missed.
• Table 3 (p. 25) Sex ratio and child sex ratio 1901–2011 — note 1991 all-time low of 927, recovery to 943 in 2011, but child sex ratio dropped from 976 (1961) to 919 (2011).
• Map 2 (p. 26) Child sex ratios across states 2011 — colour-coded; northern prosperous belt (Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, J&K, HP) in the lowest categories; north-east and southern states better.
• Table 4 (p. 28) Literacy rate 1951–2011 — total 73.0% in 2011; male–female gap shrinking from 25.1% (1961) to 16.3% (2011).
• Table 5 (p. 29) Rural and urban population 1901–2011 — urban share grew from 10.8% to 31.2% over a century.
• Box 2.4 (p. 32) Population momentum — even though fertility has fallen to 2.7, India's population will rise from 1.2 bn (2011) to ~1.6 bn by 2050 because of the large reproductive-age cohort.
• Box 2.5 (pp. 32–33) Key goals of NHP 2017 — public health spend 2.5% of GDP by 2025, life expectancy 70, TFR 2.1, U-5 mortality 23, MMR 100, neo-natal mortality 16 by 2025.

2.4 Common confusions / NTA trap points

• Malthus's progressions: Population = geometric (2, 4, 8, 16…); food = arithmetic (2, 4, 6, 8…). NTA flips this often — option order matters.
• Preventive vs positive checks: Preventive = voluntary (delaying marriage, celibacy); Positive = involuntary (famines, epidemics, war). Don't confuse 'positive' with 'good' — for Malthus 'positive' simply means actively operative.
• Sex ratio is females per 1000 males (not males per 1000 females, and not a percentage). A falling sex ratio means fewer females per 1000 males.
• Child sex ratio (0–6) ≠ overall sex ratio. In 2011 overall = 943 but child = 919. The child figure has been falling continuously even when the overall rose — this is the alarm bell.
• Replacement level fertility ≈ growth rate near zero, not births = 2. TFR around 2.1 is the threshold; states below this (TN, AP, Punjab, HP, WB, Kerala — TFR 1.7 in 2016) will eventually see population decline.
• 1918–19 influenza ('Spanish Flu') killed ~12.5 million (NCERT §2.2, p. 12) or ~17 million (NCERT Box 2.2, p. 14) — both figures appear; both are about 5% of India's population at the time.
• PNDT Act: in force since 1996; strengthened (not introduced) in 2003. A question dating it to 2003 is wrong.
• Demographic dividend is not automatic — it needs education and employment policy to be realised (Box 2.3, p. 23). NTA may set assertion-reason traps suggesting the dividend automatically lifts GDP.
• Demographic transition has three stages, not four; the population explosion happens in the transitional/second stage, not the first or third.
• India's first population policy = 1952, not 1947 or 1976. The 1975–76 Emergency saw coercive sterilisation but no new policy; new policies came in 2000 (NPP) and 2017 (NHP).
• Lowest child sex ratio is Haryana (793) — the only state below 800; highest is Arunachal Pradesh (972). A common trap reverses these or picks Kerala as highest.
• 1921 is the demographic divide, not 1951 or 1947. Before 1921 both curves are high; after 1921 they diverge.
• MMR uses 1,00,000 live births as denominator, IMR uses 1000 live births. Mixing the denominators is a frequent NTA trap.

2.5 Thinkers / Theories